Corner Supply CoSanabul Launch

A dedicated combat-sports skin defense brand · Y1 launch forecast for board review

The business in one paragraph.

Corner Supply Co is a dedicated combat-sports skin defense brand, built as a sister brand within the Sanabul family to serve the same athlete community (BJJ, MMA, wrestling, boxing) with a product category Sanabul itself doesn't sell. We're launching two products on Amazon to fill a real gap in the niche: an antifungal body wash (16oz and 32oz) for post-training infection defense, and an HOCl spray for hands, face, and equipment during sessions. The strategic wedge is the Sanabul brand foundation in combat sports — a decade of category trust, audience overlap, and "Made in USA" combat-positioning — going directly at Defense Soap ($36.99 / 2,810 units per month / 4+ years dominant), the only direct incumbent in our exact niche.

The Recommendation · One Page

Recommended Strategy

Launch SKU A2 (Body Wash 32oz) only — single SKU, single product, concentrated brand launch

Don't bundle. The 32oz body wash at $34.99 is the only SKU that returns positive Y1 ROI as a standalone launch — it sits in Defense Soap's exact price band, has the strongest per-unit contribution, and gets the full Sanabul-adjacent audience reach (no dilution across multiple SKUs). A1 (16oz) and B (HOCl) are line extensions for Y2 once A2 has built brand SEO, reviews, and BSR rank — they ride that halo without needing their own ad spend.

The Decision · Three Paths

Strategy	Y1 Revenue	Y1 Net Profit	Y1 ROI	Capital Required	Verdict

The Thesis · Why This Works

① The Audience Match

Sanabul has spent a decade building category trust with combat-sports athletes — the exact demographic that buys Defense Soap. Corner Supply Co launches with audience overlap and category-adjacent credibility, so we skip the cold-acquisition burn that kills most new Amazon launches.

② The Wedge

Defense Soap has held buy-box at $36.99 for 12+ months with a dated brand and zero marketing engine outside Amazon. They've owned the niche on inertia, not innovation. A modern combat-positioned entrant with a real brand identity takes share without a price war.

③ The Capital Efficiency

US-sourced (30-day lead, no tariffs, 50/50 PO terms) cuts capital required by ~30% vs offshore. Initial PO under $25K. Peak cash deficit under $50K. Pays back in M01 thanks to warm-launch demand.

④ The Defensibility

Subscribe & Save converts ~20% of buyers to recurring revenue. Combat athletes use body wash daily; high re-purchase intent. Corner Supply Co builds its own brand SEO, review base, and BSR rank from M1 — independent assets that compound regardless of any single channel.

The Risks · What Could Go Wrong

Audience engagement < assumed

Base case assumes 35% engagement × 3% conversion on the Sanabul-adjacent customer base. If real engagement is 20% (lapsed audience), Y1 NP drops from +$21K to +$5K but stays positive. Pessimistic case modeled in Sensitivity table.

Defense Soap responds

4+ years of static pricing suggests low responsiveness, but a credible new entrant could trigger -10-15% price cut + PPC bid escalation. Modeled in Pessimistic case (CPC +30%, refund 9%).

US co-pack quote moves

Default unit cost $9.50 for 32oz body wash. At $12 landed COGS, ROI drops from 37% to ~22% (still viable). At $14+, it becomes marginal. Confirm quote before placing PO.

HOCl regulatory (Y2 risk)

Wave-2 risk only — HOCl spray + antimicrobial claims can trigger FDA OTC scrutiny. Mitigation: position as "refreshing combat skin spray" (cosmetic) at launch. Doesn't affect Y1 plan.

How to Use This Forecast

Forecast tab — the live model. Toggle scenarios (Conservative / Default / Aggressive / Sanabul Launch), pick which SKUs to launch and when (M01-M12 per SKU), tune the audience and conversion math via sliders, see every chart and table rebuild instantly. This is where you stress-test the recommendation.

Assumptions tab — every single input that drives the model is editable here. Unit costs, MOQs, lead times, PO terms, ad spend mechanics, keyword data per SKU, launch mechanics, inventory/cash mechanics. If a board member challenges a number, change it live and watch the Forecast recompute. Export the assumption set to JSON to share with the board for review.

What changes from here: three numbers to validate with the Sanabul team before placing the first PO — (1) actual US co-pack quote for A2 32oz, (2) addressable audience reach and engagement % for the launch, (3) backup HOCl co-packer name for Y2 line extension. If those hold, the plan is green-light.

SKUs in Launch

Click any SKU to include/exclude. Use the M01 / M03 / M06 … dropdown to set when each SKU launches. SKUs in the same launch month share the brand audience reach for that wave. Separate launch months trigger separate launch pushes with 0.6× fatigue decay per subsequent wave (M1 = 100%, M2nd wave = 60%, M3rd wave = 36%).

Launch Audience Parameters · live

Addressable audience (nominal) 100K

Audience engagement % 35%

Conv. rate (engaged) 3.0%

Subscribe & Save rate 20%

Launch orders = audience × engagement × conv. Engagement accounts for the 60-75% of any customer base that's lapsed/inactive. S&S subscribers churn at 10%/mo (industry norm).

Portfolio · Y1 Outcome

Monthly Revenue by SKU

Monthly Net Profit (Portfolio)

Gross Profit vs Ad Spend

Cash Position — Pre-launch through M12 · PO timing + 14-day Amazon disbursement lag + ad spend + OpEx

PO Schedule & Launch Budget · Per-SKU

SKU	PO	Order Month	Arrival Month	Units	Total Cost	Deposit (30%)	Balance (70%)	Sizing

How to read this. Initial PO is sized to cover launch ramp + lead time + safety stock. Reorders fire when (on-hand + in-flight) drops below trigger threshold, sized at the configured reorder-size (default 3 months) of average velocity (min MOQ). Auto = model-sized; Manual = you set an override. To override, go to Assumptions → Per-SKU Economics and set Initial PO size or Reorder PO size. Leave blank for auto-sizing.

Launch Budget Breakdown · Capital Stack

Line Item	Amount	Notes

Capital required = sum of all outflows minus Amazon disbursements at the peak-deficit month. That's the cash on hand you must have before placing the first PO. After M6 (typical peak month), Amazon disbursements + organic profit progressively pay down the deficit.

Risks & Sensitivity · CFO View

Scenario Case	Y1 Revenue	Y1 Net Profit	Y1 ROI	Peak Cash Deficit	Lost Sales	Verdict

Sensitivity definitions. Base = current sliders + assumptions. Pessimistic = list engagement 20% / conv 1.5% / S&S churn 15%/mo / refund 9% / CPC +30% (competitor response). Optimistic = list engagement 50% / conv 5% / S&S churn 5%/mo / refund 5% / CPC -10%. Stockout-Free = inventory cap disabled (what the model would say if you order infinite stock — purely diagnostic). Use the spread between Pessimistic and Optimistic as the realistic P10-P90 range for board discussion.

Launch Plan Summary · Per-SKU

SKU	Launch SP	Margin	Y1 Revenue	Y1 Ad Spend	Y1 Net Profit	ROI	Breakeven	Payback	Verdict

Definitions. Breakeven Month = first month with positive monthly net profit that remains broadly positive through Y1 (a SKU can have a positive M1 from email injection but if M2–12 are negative, breakeven = "Not in Y1"). Payback Month = first month at which cumulative NP ≥ 0, conditional on Y1 ending positive — a SKU with negative Y1 NP never reaches payback in Y1 even if it has individual positive months. Launch Budget = max(first PO at MOQ × landed COGS, 6 months velocity × landed COGS) + sum of negative monthly NP + $12K one-time setup (photos, A+, Vine, brand registry). ROI = Y1 Net Profit ÷ Launch Budget — what you get back for the capital deployed.

▸ Monthly P&L · Portfolio (click to expand)

Assumptions Editor. Every input that drives the forecast is editable below. Changes apply immediately — switch back to the Forecast tab to see the recomputed numbers. All edits persist in this browser (localStorage); use Reset to defaults to wipe.

Global Constants

Apply to all scenarios. Refund rate & one-time launch cost are audit-corrected from the original spreadsheet (4% → 7%, $5K → $12K).

Scenario Levers

Eight settings × four scenarios. The first three are cold-launch counterfactuals (no brand foundation). Sanabul Launch is the live plan.

Inventory & Cash Mechanics

CFO-grade controls: when to reorder, how aggressively, churn assumptions, competitor response.

Sanabul Launch Mechanics

Only active in the Sanabul Launch scenario. These are the assumptions behind the warm-launch math vs. cold-launch counterfactuals — pricing, review accrual, audience overlap, and brand-driven CVR ramp.

Per-SKU Economics

Unit costs, fees, market reference prices, and benchmark competitor data. Launch-scenario price overrides apply only in Sanabul Launch mode.

Keywords

Combat-sports skin defense KW universe per SKU. Phase 1 (M1–M3): anchor + long-tail. Phase 2 (M4–M6): mid-tail. Phase 3 (M7+): broader expansion. In Sanabul Launch mode, Phase 2 KWs get × 0.55 overlap deflator and Phase 3 × 0.40 (combat-sports terms have less buyer overlap than generic body wash KWs).